Column by John Lohn, Swimming World senior writer
BASKING RIDGE, New Jersey, July 26. WE'RE quickly approaching this summer's Nationals, a meet which will serve as the selection competition for the Pan Pacific Championships and, in part, for next year's World Championships in Shanghai. Additionally, the European Championships are just around the corner, setting up battles for bragging rights on that continent. Here are a few storylines to follow as the summer heats up.
**Over in Europe, one of the biggest duels to watch will be between Germany's Paul Biedermann, the reigning world champion in the 200 and 400 freestyles, and France's surging youngster, Yannick Agnel. Biedermann, of course, set a pair of world records last year while the tech suits were in full force. This will be a chance for the German to show where he stands in textile and see how close he can get to the 1:43.86 Michael Phelps popped at the 2007 World Championships.
For Agnel, who dominated the competition at the European Junior Championships and continues to make noise on the overall international stage, we'll see whether he's ready to hang with Biedermann with major crowns up for grabs. The feeling here is that Agnel will give Biedermann all he can handle in Budapest, site of the Euro Champs.
**We've talked about Missy Franklin in this space before and Nationals seem like the place for the 15-year-old Colorado Stars standout to take the next step in her career. Franklin had a solid tuneup meet at the Speedo Western Section Championships and will be expected to be among the finalists in the 100 and 200 freestyles, along with the backstroke disciplines.
**What will we see from North Baltimore Aquatic Club sensation Elizabeth Pelton' While Pelton advanced to the World Championships last year, she was just scratching the surface of her talent and is likely on the verge of establishing herself as the next go-to girl in American swimming. Pelton has already been sub-minute in the 100 backstroke this year and has been 2:08-mid in the 200 back.
More, Pelton has the ability to deliver a major statement in the 200 individual medley on the opening night of competition. That event could be considered the deepest of the women's program at Irvine, the likes of Ariana Kukors, Julia Smit, Katie Hoff and Dagny Knutson potentially in the field.
**Training at Trojan Swimming Club, Hungarian Katinka Hosszu will be among the top women to watch at the European Championships. Hosszu has enjoyed a sterling tuneup season, clocking times of 2:11.12 for the 200 individual medley and 4:34.68 for the 400 I.M. It wouldn't be surprising to see Hosszu push 4:30 for the longer medley considering her midseason results and the way she has risen internationally over the last year.
**It's hard to argue that any event at Nationals will be deeper than the field which will gather for the men's 100 backstroke. We're looking at a lineup that could include two-time defending Olympic champion Aaron Peirsol, Olympic silver medalist Matt Grevers, Nick Thoman, Randall Bal and Ryan Lochte. That's some serious star power.
Of the men that don't make the United States squad for Pan Pacs, the Stars and Stripes could put together a team to rival the rest of the world. During introductions for the final of the event, it's going to take the announcer longer than normal to reveal the field, given the accomplishments of the cast which will be competing.
**So, those are a few of the storylines that will unfold shortly. Let's hear about some others that will draw the interest of the worldwide swimming community. Drop your thoughts to Reaction Time, and enjoy the next few weeks.
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Reaction Time Comments
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July 25, 2010 I'm really looking forward to seeing Nick Thoman have a breakthrough season this year. Peirsol and Grevers will have their hands full with him. As for Agnel, he's the next big thing. Submitted by: philipmj24
July 25, 2010 How about Katinka Hosszu vs. Hannah Miley in IMs @ Budapest (athough I understand British might bag thid meet and focus instead on Commonwealth Games in October -- which would be a smame but a convenient out for them.)
And with no Steffen to defend her sprint titles and quite possibly no Ronomi K. in the short freestyles these events will have lost their luster too.
Britain's got some top people (backstroker Liam Tancoc, drosal specialist-200 IMer James Goddard, Miley, Rob Renwick in thr 200-400 frees, flyer-IMer Joe Roebuck, medleylist Thomas Haffield (who could give Cseh a go in the 400), Gemma Spofforth, world record-holder from Florida in 100 back, etc. but if they don't fully taper and shave -- as has been bandied about -- the meet will be a ho-hum affair.
Maybe Pursley [Dennis, national team director/coach] has a plan but if Britain does bag it at Budapest why even bother showing up?
Stay home and save the hotel bills!
That'd be like Australia coming to Irvine in a fee weeks fro the Pan-Pacs and saying, "Oh, we're just going to swim through the meet and thengo back home and really prepare to go b---s out @ Delhi."
Hopefully neither scenario will occur! Submitted by: slickwillie32
July 26, 2010 I don't know if you've noticed this, slick... but in the last at least 100 years, there have been over 9000 instances of people swimming fast even though they claimed they weren't shaved and tapered. Submitted by: JakedBadForYou
July 26, 2010 Good examples of that are Julia Smit from Pac-10s this year and even Kromowidjojo's swims from March. That said, we will never know if she could have gone faster this year.
Not exactly sure why, but Agnel (as of right now) is not entered in the 200 free at Europeans. Possibly because he didn't go fast enough in one of the three rounds? He broke the French record in semis (since broken at Paris Open), but the final was lackluster. He just has the 400 and two relays at Euros. Biedermann's biggest (and only) competition in the 200 will be Izotov.
As for Missy Franklin, I can't imagine her in the 200 free final. Too deep of an event for her to slip into the top eight. That said, I highly doubt she swims the race, since it's on the same night as the 100 back.
The event order for Nationals will be the same as last summer (and summer 2006 and others). Schedule is on page three of the PDF below. Still has the men's 200 free and 100 back back-to-back, which I will never understand.
http://www.usaswimming.org/_Rainbow/Documents/6aaad258-45a7-4ac0-9b16-5fdbb8e7f343/2010 LC Champs Meet Book 7-19-10.pdf Submitted by: David Rieder
July 26, 2010 Do think there are some fun races to watch! The mens 200im will have a few other names thrown in with Lochte out. The womens young girls will see how they handle under pressure. Usually the women at a young age do better than young men under pressure. I think again in the 100 back for men and women will be fun! Coughlin and Peirsol will still be victorious. Fred Bousquet and Alain Bernard have both said they feel faster at 27 and 28, the key now is experience with our speed! Submitted by: swimfan3
July 26, 2010 Certainluy there have been innumerable instances where a swimmer has performed well @ a major meet and then just weeks later done it again.
The '78 Commonwealth games in Edmonton in late July/early August and then the worlds in West Berlin three weeks later come to mund as do the Euro Champiuonships in the springs/erly summers of '00/'04 and then the Olympics not too many moons later.
I'm only suggesting that Britain has already publicly stated on mas que uno occasion that Delhi and the Commonwealth Games are its main focus this year.
Now how that translates into their swimmers putting forth max effot @ Budapest...well we'll just have to wait and see.
As for Agnel vs. Biedermann (or vice versa) ostensibly that's like Ali in his prime fighting Archie Moore when the latter was washed up in is his mid '40s.
But as others have suggested, the young gentleman who bears the tri colors just may have a surprise or two up his Arena for the double-defending World Champion/world recorod-holder.
We shall see next week. Submitted by: slickwillie32
July 26, 2010 I´m excited to see Adrian X Cielo 100 free at PanPacs.It seems without suits, Cielo is not too fast(at 100free, in 50 he´s unbeatable). Submitted by: MrIron
July 26, 2010 Of course it's different this year from last year (when the suits made everybody swim fast all year), and fully tapered will have a different effect. But what the Brits say and what they Brits do might not be the same. Just because the full taper isn't due until September, that doesn't mean they will show up in heavy training and swim sluggish. Take Halsall for instance. Between their nationals and C-Games, there is a limit to how hard she can train. A sprinter can't be pounded month in, month out. They will time her training schedule so that Budapest coincides with an "easy" week and the sudden rest she gets will make her go fast and probably faster as the meet progresses. Submitted by: JakedBadForYou
July 26, 2010 One thing to keep in mind about tapering is that we should consider their coaches and the training philosophy they follow. Salo's athletes often swim fast throughout the season. We've seen this already with Soni, Hozzsu, and other athletes. They'll be aiming to peak for the big meets coming up no doubt. But since they don't necessarily taper like other athletes we're not as likely to see massive drops from their earlier season bests. Same thing for McKeever's athletes and to some degree Hutchison's. On the other hand for swimmers like Peirsol, Lochte, Phelps, Beisel, Schmitt, etc. we might anticipate some good tapered improvements. Submitted by: ShortChange
July 26, 2010 Taper schmaper!
If the top U.S. swmimmers want to be on the plane to Shanghai a year from now they better be tapered, shaved and rested for Nationals, and that includes a certain 14-time Olymoic gold-medalist!
Prediction: Katie Olsen is gonna turn heads in 100 breast. Submitted by: slickwillie32
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